US: Michigan index, breaking balance in demand and price factor

US consumer confidence weakened modestly in October as the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 71.4 in October's flash reading from 72.8 in September. This reading came in below the market expectation of 73.1.

When we look at the sub-items; Further details of the publication revealed that the Current Conditions Index fell from 80.1 to 77.9 and the Consumer Expectations Index fell from 68.1 to 67.2. Retail sales announced today showed that demand and price factors are effective together in consumption. However, in the basic case, we can think that this effect will be broken in favor of inflation as prices continue to rise and supply is limited. The slowdown in demand has the following side-effect; Delta variant, high prices due to supply chain shortages, but also low labor force participation rates. On the one hand, slowing activity, on the other hand, decreased ability to spend. The desired phenomenon here is not a falling demand with a slowing economy; A demand that is accelerated by the tapering phenomenon and does not create inflation.

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